• Week 2

  September 14, 2025

  🏈 NFL Week 2 EV+ SPA Pick

  Published: Sep 14 • Book: DraftKings • Format: +EV & SPA (situational) focus

  Main Pick: Browns +11.5 (–110) vs Ravens
  Stake: $50 to win $45.45

  Team	Spread	Line	Notes
  Browns	+11.5	–110	Divisional dog, value above key number 10
  Ravens	–11.5	–110	Public-heavy side, inflated premium

  🔍 SPA Breakdown

  • Divisional Dog: AFC North familiarity compresses margins; double digits are harder to cover.
  • Early-Season Variance: Week 2 volatility adds paths to single-digit outcomes.
  • Public Bias: Market shades toward Ravens after a strong opener; we take the points.

  💵 Bankroll Plan

  One bet this week: $50 on Browns +11.5 (–110). No props or parlays.

  ---

  Lines from DraftKings; check your book for updates before placing a wager. This post focuses on expected value (+EV) and situational angles (SPA) and is for informational/entertainment purposes only.

• 78% week1

  September 7, 2025

   🏈 NFL EV + SPA — Week 1 Blog
  
  
  
   Post Title: NFL Week 1 — EV + SPA Picks
  Date:** September 7, 2025  
  Starting Bankroll: $100  
  Staking Plan: 100% Deployed ($45 JAX ML, $45 TB ML, $10 Parlay)
  
  
   📊 Weekly Bankroll Tracker
  | Week | Start | Risked | Won/Lost | End | ROI % |
  |---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
  | 1 | $100 | $100 | +$78.46 | $178.46 | 78.46% |
  
  
   📈 Season-Long Tracker
  | Week | Start | End | Weekly ROI % | Cumulative ROI % |
  |---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
  | 1 | $100 | $178.46 | 78.46% | 78.46% |
  | 2 | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
  | 3 | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
  | … | … | … | … | … |
  | 18 | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
  
  
   🔑 Straight Bets
  
   Pick 1: Jacksonville Jaguars ML (−160)
   Stake: $45  
   Fair Price (No Vig): −175 (63.6%)  
   Edge: +2.1%  
   SPA: Medium–High  
   Payout if Win: $73.13 ($28.13 profit)  
   Result: WIN
  
   Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (−135)
   Stake: $45  
   Fair Price (No Vig): −140 (58.3%)  
   Edge: +0.9% (EV ≈ +$0.69)  
   SPA: Medium  
   Payout if Win: $78.33 ($33.33 profit)  
   **Result: WIN**
  
  
  
   🎲 Parlay Card
   Legs: Jaguars ML × Buccaneers ML  
   Stake: $10  
   Odds: +170  
   Fair Odds: +160  
   Edge: Small +EV  
   SPA: Medium  
   Payout if Win: $27.00 ($17.00 profit)  
   Result: WIN
  
  
  
   📝 Recap & Notes
  Week 1 Recap:** 3–0 sweep (JAX ML, TB ML, Parlay). Bankroll +$78.46 → $178.46.  
  Key Market Moves:** JAX held steady, TB moved +115 → −135.  
  
  
  
   📌 Footer
  NFL EV + SPA — Week 1.** Lines locked at time of post; track CLV separately. EV computed via no-vig fair price; SPA = matchup confidence overlay.
  

• WEEK1

  August 26, 2025

  🏈 NFL EV + SPA Picks — Week1

  Date: September 7, 2025
  Starting Bankroll: $100
  Staking Plan: 100% Deployed

  📊 Running Bankroll Tracker

  Week	Start	Risked	Won/Lost	End	ROI %
  1	$100	$100	TBD	TBD	TBD

  🔑 Straight Bets

  Pick 1: Jacksonville Jaguars ML (−160)

  • Stake: $45
  • Fair Price (No Vig): −175 (63.6%)
  • Edge: +2.1%
  • SPA: Medium–High
  • Payout if Win: $73.13 ($28.13 profit)

  Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (−135)

  • Stake: $45
  • Fair Price (No Vig): −140 (58.3%)
  • Edge: +0.9% (58.3% fair vs 57.5% book implied); EV ≈ +$0.69 on $45
  • SPA: Medium
  • Payout if Win: $78.33 ($33.33 profit)

🎲 Parlay

• Legs: Jaguars ML + Buccaneers ML
• Stake: $10
• Odds: +170
• Payout if Win: $27.00 ($17.00 profit)